A Contiguous Islamist State

Iraq is a shambles. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Al Qaeda off-shoot that now controls nearly a third of the nation, continues to run amok.

We will soon be facing a contiguous Islamist state smack dab in the middle of the Middle East.

Screen Shot 2014-06-12 at 5.28.41 PMThat state will look eerily similar to Afghanistan, circa September 10, 2001. In some ways, it will be an even more worrisome state. Instead of being based among mountains at the end of the earth, these Al Qaeda look-alikes will be perched just a stone’s throw from Europe and one hop away from a quick transatlantic flight to America.

Even if ISIS doesn’t end up owning a lot of real estate, this campaign will be a huge psychological victory for the terrorist movement.

The Islamists will argue that they bested the army trained and equipped by the Americans. They are clearly on the offensive, which means “the Americans” are in retreat. The message to all extremists: Join us, the winning side.
And don’t expect the war Syria to end any time soon. With a strong base of operations in Iraq, ISIS can always throw more gasoline on that fire and keep that conflict going.
And who is to say the terrorists will stop there? Poor little Jordan teeters on the edge of the abyss. With the Muslim Brotherhood still strong within its borders and Syrian refugees now constituting more than a tenth of its total population, Jordan looks like a target that says “Islamists come after me.”
Finally, who knows what this means for Iran? Tehran will undoubtedly use the opportunity to strengthen its own influence in Iraq, even as it looks to deflect pressure from the US with a faux nuclear deal.

None of these all-too-possible outcomes can be ignored or brushed aside.

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